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March 10, 2012

Break ke Baad

          I have taken long break and it is exactly 11 months back I had posted my last post on this blog . I had taken break because I do not want to bombard with my value picks when market was going down every day. Of Course , Value investing is longer term process and we should buy when market is down. Secondly , I was blessed with baby boy , So I couldn’t give much time for blogging .

I had given few net-net value picks but this type of stocks are only one category of my portfolio . I have following categories in my portfolio . Percentage of each category varies time to time based on market condition , available cash and new stock picks.

A.  Expensive Quality Picks :
This category consist of quality stocks which are bit expensive than my comfort level but are expected to be remain expensive in future too. This stocks should have consistent good records from last at least 7-8 years and market regards them as high quality stocks. Initially I do not used to buy this stocks because these were expensive but over the time I have realize if they maintain high quality then there is no reason for losing that premium.  But I do not buy too much expensive quality stocks.

Examples :-
1)    HDFC bank
2)   Nestle

B.  Net-Net Value Picks (Graham Style):
This category consist of stocks which are available very cheap on net-net basis with catalyst to achieve desired high value . I have covered this type of stocks on my earlier post .
Examples :-
a.    Indsil Hydro ( expansion plans are delayed due to various regulatory reasons)
b.    Nucleus Software Exports Ltd ( Good candidate for takeover, given consolidation phase is going on in IT product companies worldwide)

C.  Growth at reasonable Price (Buffett Style):
This category consist of growth stocks which are high quality in terms ROCE , Margin , Debtor ratio and other balance sheet parameters and still available cheap.

Examples :-
1.     Vinati Organics Ltd
2.    Kaveri Seed Company Ltd

D.   Arbitrage Opportunity :
This category consist of stocks which offer opportunity of arbitrage because of some special conditional such as demerger .

Examples :-
1.     Recently I had participated in Provogue (India) Ltd demerger but I have sold all my holding before ex-date.
2.    Currently buying “Orient Paper & Industries Ltd” for Arbitrage and hoping market condition will be good whenever “Orient cement” will got listed .

E. Turnaround Story :
This category consist of stocks which are going to turnaround in near future .
1.     Balaji Telefilms Ltd :- I am quite sure about turnaround of business prospect of Balaji Telefilms Ltd . Prima facie Balaji Telefilms Ltd looks cheap given cash/investment on balance sheet  but Balaji Telefilms Ltd has contingent liabilities 322 crores which is quite big risk. Because of 322 crores contingent liabilities factor my holding is negligible in Balaji Telefilms Ltd. Most of the stock analyst are ignoring this fact while giving buy recommendation on Balaji Telefilms Ltd.
2.    Tayo Rolls Ltd :- I do not have any holding in Tayo Rolls Ltd  and yet to analyse cyclic stock Tayo Rolls Ltd  in the details but this Tata Group company is good turnaround candidate.

So far I have given value picks of net-net type but now I am planning to give some value picks which falls under category of “growth at reasonable price”. I am also going to put analysis (post mortem) of some of the stocks which I do not intend to recommend for buying.

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HAVE A NICE DAY .............. 

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I am not an Investment advisor and do not provide this service via this Blog. The Blog is a personal diary and the stocks discussed on the blog represent my personal views and analysis. They are not recommendations to buy or sell stocks. I do not intend to recommend any stocks for financial or non-financial gains and may or may not be holding the stocks discussed on my blog.

In a nutshell - i am not responsible for the losses or gains made based on the information published on this Blog