BSE has introduced stringent filters from Oct 2015 . Some of the investors are calling BSE as Brainless Stock Exchange due to BSE Periodic Price Band(BSE stringent filters).By virtue value investing is long term and these restrictions may help to increase value investors time horizon . So this is advantages but there are more disadvantages .Calm, knowledgeable and sensible value investors usually see opportunities in market fluctuations.Even great value investors as Warren Buffet says investors should be able to look at market fluctuations as their friend rather than an enemy.
They have addressed some of the situations with additional exception but still need to address some of the situations like turn around by the company , take over , Buy Back , open offer related issues and many more unknown issues which put minority shareholders in disadvantage position. Current market situation it may work up to some extends because most of the stock already run up over last 2 years . It could not have been worked if it was introduced two years back . We might have not seen these much mutibaggers if it was introduced two years back. Even in future it will not work when bear market ends and new bull market just getting started . There is not clear communication from BSE to retail investors , it is just creating chaos . Stock exchanges are usually known for price discovery . Most of the small cap stocks fall under 5% daily filters . So , if a stock moves 100% in a quarter + few more days then for next 9 months no trading will happen in that stock . How can stock exchange justify this ? May be some people might using BSE exchange for wrong reason but this is not solution . This situation is like terrorist might use some important express way for their vehicle so close that express way for even general public for next 9 months or general public can go up to 20 KM in a Week, 30 KM in a month , 60 KM in a Quarter and 100 KM in a Year .
BSE has provided updated Periodic Price Band(BSE stringent filters) Data on Jan 01 , 2016 for almost 2380 stocks . You can refer this PDF list to get some clarity about your stocks filters .
http://www.bseindia.com/downloads1/PPB01012016.pdf
More details at http://www.bseindia.com/investors/periodic_price_bands.aspx?expandable=5
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They have addressed some of the situations with additional exception but still need to address some of the situations like turn around by the company , take over , Buy Back , open offer related issues and many more unknown issues which put minority shareholders in disadvantage position. Current market situation it may work up to some extends because most of the stock already run up over last 2 years . It could not have been worked if it was introduced two years back . We might have not seen these much mutibaggers if it was introduced two years back. Even in future it will not work when bear market ends and new bull market just getting started . There is not clear communication from BSE to retail investors , it is just creating chaos . Stock exchanges are usually known for price discovery . Most of the small cap stocks fall under 5% daily filters . So , if a stock moves 100% in a quarter + few more days then for next 9 months no trading will happen in that stock . How can stock exchange justify this ? May be some people might using BSE exchange for wrong reason but this is not solution . This situation is like terrorist might use some important express way for their vehicle so close that express way for even general public for next 9 months or general public can go up to 20 KM in a Week, 30 KM in a month , 60 KM in a Quarter and 100 KM in a Year .
BSE has provided updated Periodic Price Band(BSE stringent filters) Data on Jan 01 , 2016 for almost 2380 stocks . You can refer this PDF list to get some clarity about your stocks filters .
http://www.bseindia.com/downloads1/PPB01012016.pdf
More details at http://www.bseindia.com/investors/periodic_price_bands.aspx?expandable=5
Wish you very happy and prosperous new year 2016 . I hope your compounding m/c for all your stock investments continue with same or higher speed in 2016 as well .
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Hi Sir, thanks for the update. Have you found any new value pick. When u might be posting your next gem. Checking your blog daily for your next pick.
ReplyDeleteIt is nice to know that this idiot also has few fan .
DeleteNow a days very little opportunity to find new value pick , most of the small cap stocks are over priced . We need to be very patient for next under valued opportunity with tolerable check list exceptions . Now as days stock are moving so fast they are not providing opportunity to even do more detail research . I had bought token shares of Satin Creditcare Network Ltd for 140 and was waiting to come around 110 , next what happen it moved to 400 . I couldn't buy more than those token share for tracking . Same case with turnaround opportunity of E-Land Apparel Ltd . Shree Hari Chemicals Export Ltd is defiantly undervalued but I still need to dig more . We can look Shree Hari as typical Graham value investing point of view , once it reach fair valuation sell it .
Thanks for informing us about BSE Periodic Price Band, it will very helpful as user point of view. Please keep sharing for the beneficial knowledge of users.
ReplyDeleteEquity investment UP
me too your follower sir......sir need your opinion on MAXIMAA SYSYTEM LTD. for long term and as per my info it is the only listed company of this product
ReplyDeleteThanks all my regular blog reader for following me .
DeleteHi , I don't provide advice on stock since I am in normal life don't say no to anybody . But when choosing stock I have bad habit to say no . I can say no to almost 198-199 stocks out of 200 stock on my radar. But when it is already recommended by other experts then may be I can say yes to 10% because it is already filtered stock depend on expert reputation.So , it is highly likely that I will say no to your stock pick . I don't want to disappoint my blog readers who are asking suggestion with just continues negative feedback .
Secondly , I don't want to pass comment on brief research even though that most time is enough . I wan to give enough time before saying no because there is always chance to make money by second level thinking .
since, you are my blog regular visitor I am providing exception this time . I had looked into Maximaa Systems Ltd , it looked good but it failed on my check list . Mainly it has hight debt/equity ratio, very low debtor ratio , past growth is not impressive etc . Take it as pinch of salt but same time I believe in second level thinking . If you can convince yourself or me why these negative is past and why future is bright ? then go ahead and consider buy . But it should counter with highly convincing facts .
Thank u so much sir for looking to this and want to share some info about this "maximaa system used to operate in three divisions namely Systems Storage, IT services and Pharma division and from last quarter they separated pharma division from other two" so it will be excited to see the how much debt this stock will get after separation. M i going in a right way sir??
DeleteMe too sir.....
ReplyDeletesir did you manage to buy a single share of technvision after Jan 1st. ? I tried buying it but I was unsuccessful. any idea when can I get it ? waiting for your reply thank you
ReplyDeleteHi Ananth ,
ReplyDeleteEven, I have purchased few additional shares . You have to place your order asap , once market open for pre-open session i.e. 9 AM . You might be placing your order when market opens i.e. 9:15 A.M.
You should try at 9:00 AM of preopenning session since this order get carry forward with first preference to main window .
Last week almost 23 thousands share were traded so you had good chance to get it . By the way you will get lot of chance on current price since it is now on yearly circuit of 92 . So no more price increase so short term seller will sell asap .
Sir your view to say no to almost 198-199 stocks out of 200 stock on your radar is very good for your followers like us. We get the chance to select best stock by getting the views from you after we analyse some stocks and get opinion on them from you for any red flags.
ReplyDeleteCan you please give me your valuable views for the below stock. Can you please point out atleast one red flag.
Associated Alcohol and Beverages. It has very low debt, very low equity base and good promoter holding. Posting good profits consistently. Looks like it is going to be next GM Breweries
ASSOCIATED ALCHOLOL & BREWERIES LTD is contract manufacturer for Famous brands
Smirnoff Vodka - The world’s leading vodka.
Captain Morgan rum - The number 3 spirit brand by volume in the US. number 7 worldwide.
HAIG Scotch whisky - A frne whisky from the oldest distilling family in Scotland.
Masterstroke whisky - The latest brand from liquor company Diageo-Radico.
Glen Drummond single malt scotch whisky - First locally battled single malt premium scotch whisky in India.
Royal Crown whisky - Scotch blended grain-based Indian Made Foreign Liquor.
Your valuable views please.
Hi Anand ,
DeleteI must say your stock pick is too good with very few red flags . If you discovered it then I must consider you in expert category :) .
I have also brought today for tracking purpose . I will do more research on it in coming days .
I have found the following red point when I quickly went through last year annual report . Don't worry too much about red points even wealth creators like Eicher and Asian Paints also has some red points . Our job is to focus on what is important and what is not, what we can tolerate and what we can't ? and see overall big picture ?
1) Company is profit making but dividend to profit ratio is quite low . Some of the growing companies don't give much divined since they need it for future expansion. Same time , some of the companies were cooking books used to have this characteristics . But again, we will have to think here from second level by cross checking . We can see cash flow from operation is positive , they are using cash for expansion ( gross block increases) and they are paying taxes in highest bracket . So , there is low chances of cooking books . If market has prejudice because of quite low dividend to profit ratio then that is opportunity for investors like us to dig more and prove market has wrong prejudice . If we are right and time perfectly(grab at low valuation) then we have good chance to get extra ordinary return from it .
2) ROCE : ROCE is still below 20 , I like company in mature sectors which has at least 25 ROCE .
3) Contingent Liabilities : It has very high Contingent Liabilities of 63.04 crores . They have provided guarantees to some third party . Need more details and good justification .
4) Associate company : Mount Everest Breweries Limited is associate company. I prefer Subsidiary company over associate company.
5)lot of investment in un listed companies , some of them looks from real estate sector. How can we make sure that they will not continue to invest in these type of companies in future as well .
Sir, I am very very happy to hear very encouraging comments from you. Feeling happy that I am in right path in value investing by following experts like you. I am not an expert sir, I am just 1+ year old to equity markets. I am very regular follower of you, value pick Sir, Dolly Mam, ace investor and learning very valuable points from you experts. In the process of exploring good stocks, I went through Associated Alcohol and found that its unnoticed and at very low valuations when compared to its peers. Though I am not a big expert to say no to 199 stocks of 200, I learnt from you to say no to atleast 100 stocks of 200. with your valuable views as of now, I will add some more shares on dips. I request you to share us if you find any red flags further. Also waiting for your next value pick Sir.
DeleteOne more clarification from ur above mentioned stock, Shree Hari chemicals which I felt very good stock. But I came across a news that the factory got closed twice due to pollution issues due to which there was huge fall of share price at those times. So don't you feel that these issues won't arise in future as well as its in chemical sector.
Many thanks Sir...
Dear Admin ji
ReplyDeleteAll are telling i am your regular follower,but let me also tell all i am tracking this blog when intrasoft was at 275 though sir has recommended at 48...I silently bought @272 range and made handsome profits..All new members you can see my comment also that i was so eagerly waiting for new picks after that..Then sir recommended olympia industries i waited and waited and bought in rksv as they allow to buy p group stocks at lowest level of 99..Still on hold and sitting on handsome profits you can see my in olympia post too..Only sir i cant buy technvision as i tried many times also in rksv we cant place order at 9..i need to buy only at 9:15 when market opens and stock touch uc...Sir i hope you will come up with new stock soon as market is weak..Many oppurtunities will come up..Many thanks..
Raunak Pardeshi, it's good to see you hold two of Sir's recos. Also good to see many bloggers coming up with posts that they r the biggest follower of Value2wealth Sir. That shows the unique identity which Sir holds by selecting unique hidden Gems. Also Sir will pick only 1 out of 200 stocks which will come to his notice which will make us to buy the recommendations by Sir very confidently after doing small analysis from our end as we can see Sir's post will have lot of indepth analysis . This also helps followers like us to post our query regarding any stocks which we find and filter it out to the maximum level by getting his views on it. I am also eagerly waiting like you from Sir's new value pick
DeleteThanks , I am still learning and need to learn a lot . I don't compare myself with others but compare with myself 2 years back . I can see I have made some progress in last 2 years but still learning so I can make mistakes . So , please don't follow blindly and you should also keep learning .
DeletePlease don't call me sir , you can call me V.A. short form of Value2Wealth Admin .
Thanks Raunak ,
ReplyDeleteI still see lot of potential in Olympia Industries Ltd .
We will have to patience with them . They are second best seller on Amazon USA . http://www.marketplacepulse.com/amazon/india
They are choosing brand and product carefully . Even though they have inventory led business model but due to heavy trade payble they keep it quite light . On another hand cloudtail which is biggest seller on Amazon India has reported 32-cr loss on 1,145-cr sales in FY15 . ( http://www.business-standard.com/article/companies/cloudtail-reports-rs-32-cr-loss-on-rs-1-145-cr-sales-in-fy15-115123000871_1.html )
This year cloudtail may report 3000 cr GMV .So far Olympia is playing smartly, may be because of their conservative approach .
If due to FDI rules cloudtail's operation get hurt then it will give good opportunity to Olympia to grab cloudtail's market share .
Tata is also coming with online marketplace , they will also need some big sellers on their platform .
Olympia Industries can have 5-8% NPM if everything goes fine . If they are able to grow topline with good CAGR in next 3-5 years with decent NPM of even 5% then it can give many fold return .
Do your own calculation even though reality may be different . Investors right now ignoring this good opportunity .
Hi V.A., Can I get your views regarding Shree Hari chemicals. I came across a news that the factory got closed twice due to pollution issues due to which there was huge fall of share price at those times. So don't you feel that these issues won't arise in future as well as its in chemical sector. Do you feel that this is a major issue.
ReplyDeleteMany thanks Sir...
Hi Anand ,
DeleteYes , I was aware about the mentioned risk but value investing (Graham /Mohnish pabrai style ) is 'Heads, I win; tails, I don't lose much!'.
Since company is having around 27 cr cash + last 2 quarters almost additional 5 + this quarter again expected to be in range of 4-5 crores .
They don't have any debt so we are getting around 37 crores cash with market cap of around 45 crores .
As we know due to pollution issues plant was shut down for around 3 weeks this financial year and more than 1 month in somewhere 2012 . Most of the chemical plants of India has same issues but they are able to manage anyhow ( you must know how ) .
If any thing like this happen then that is already captured in price , it may again go to cash level + there will be always hope that plan will be resume as it happened in the past . So ideally It should always be traded above cash level .
But if nothing like happen and able to get same price realization(due to china pollution issues) or even little less then it may give you very good return. Even promoters has increased stake in it .
I have not posted detail analysis of it because it is short term value bet where 'Heads, I win; tails, I don't lose much!'.
It doesn't have surety about scalability of business in long term as it has in Intrasoft , Olympia Industries or even TechNvission.
Hi V.A, Associated Alcohol - Board to consider bonus shares. Also CARE has upgraded the rating from BBB- to BBB+. Hope the above two news will trigger the price further more up.
ReplyDeleteIntrasoft has touch as low as 325 , scene is just scary . Business point of view nothing to worry but It has given us good return . I am sure 90% of the investors who brought around 45-60 range after our discussion on the blog has already sold it.If not then you may decide to starts booking some partial profit . Because , we should cash this multibagger as well .
ReplyDeleteBusiness point of view it will continue to perform good but price appreciation will depend on triggers and market condition.
Hi V.A Sir, This market carnage has bought many Gems to such a level that they are now at the levels when those hidden gems were first noticed. Can you post some 10-20 such stocks which u were tracking but rallied huge before this market fall. I feel that markets will stabilize somewhere when nifty reaches 7150-7250. Can u please post those stocks in this week which are not previously discussed in the blog, we can analyse those and select them depending on our conviction. Please consider the request Sir. Waiting for you reply.
ReplyDeleteMany Thanks Sir...
Yearly Upper Value in respect of TECHNVISION VENTURES LTD. is 92. Whereas Quartely Upper Value in Rs. is 122.15 as on 25.01.2016. My question is " How quarterly value can surpass yearly value?"
ReplyDeleteWill you please discuss?
Is it that price of TECHNVISION VENTURES LTD will not go above Rs. 92 throughout the year 2016? very confusing.
DeleteAs per current rule it can't go beyond 92 till 30 Sep 2016 . BSE calculate all type of filters (daily , weekly ,Quarterly , yearly) but it don't allows to cross min value among all filters in case of upper limit . Reverse is true in case of lower . So , it is possible quarterly value is higher than yearly but it will consider lowest value as upper limit which can be some times yearly value .
Deletethank you, bhaia
DeleteHello Sir,
ReplyDeleteNice that you have shared such a valuable information with us.
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SIR ONCE STOCK WHICH I FEEL HAS HUGE MULTIBAGGER POTENTIAL IS KANORIA CHEMICALS?
ReplyDeleteSIR IS IT POSSIBLE FOR YOU TO CHECK AND GIVE AN OVERVIEW IF POSSIBLE.
THANKS
REGARDS,
VIVEK
Good set of numbers by Intrasoft . Consolidated top line (GMV) has grown around 110% . We don't give much weightage to profitability of e-commerce but even e-commerce division profit has also increased by around 80% .( 4.93 vs 2.75 by reducing standalone) .
ReplyDeleteNow GMV of last 12 months is around 650 crores against current market cap of 435 crores . So , if we give GMV based valuation to 100% growing company in USA market then it looks cheap .
Not sure how market reacts but good set of numbers . It has now around $100 milions GMV . It will catch eye of big investors interested in e-commerce sooner than latter . No doubt normal traditional investors will stay away from it , but there are also few big investors who are takers of e-commerce , They will start noticing it specifically FII. This market has very rare opportunities which are growing in three digit , Intrasoft is one among them .
Dear VA sir one childish question. The results were uploaded in BSE website at about 05.25 PM on 03.02.2016, but you have given your views on the results at about 4.59 AM on 03.02.2016. How is it possible?
ReplyDeleteYou might be thinking 30 mins before but in fact as per that it is more than 12 hours if you see AM and PM . Ha ha I should be untergayami or insider :) .
DeleteOn serious note Blog has default time zone of GMT -8:00 , so it is not Indian morning but USA morning . Secondly , BSE was late and result were available on NSE on 5:12 PM IST .
I hope it helps to clear your doubts .
Now I am publishing this comments on 10:39 AM (4 feb) , let see what time it displays .
Sir Eagerly waiting for your 2016 fresh pick which can be bought.so many days after your last recomendation.please share your thoughts about the stocks which are currently on your radar.
ReplyDeleteHi Ilen ,
DeleteI am currently happy with existing portfolio . I do have some small cap stocks in my portfolio which I had never discussed on the blog . But , I can't disclose them because they lack margin of safety . I want my blog reader should have head I win and tail I don't loose much. If I find attractive enough Idea then definitely I will give it but till that I am happy with my existing portfolio . You may add the following stocks(most of them are good quality stocks) on dips.
Eicher motors (don't worry about share price too much , buy on every dips)
Britannia Industries Ltd
Pidilite Industries Ltd
Tata Elxsi Ltd
Vinati Organics Ltd
Alembic Pharmaceuticals Ltd
Capital First Ltd
ASTRAL
Wabco
NBCC
SATIN
Camlin Fine Sciences Ltd
Cyient Ltd and Geometric Ltd(buy on every dips,3D printing will help in future to both)
Olympia Industries Ltd
TechNVision Ventures Ltd
ur view on recent sale by intrasoft at cheap prices
ReplyDeleteHi Pavan ,
DeleteAs per our analysis it is not asset heavy business model but they have raised around 60 crores . They have not mentioned specific plan in conf call . Expand e-commerce is very generic term given in reason for raising fund. We will have to give some more time to promoter . They will have to prove them self they are minority shareholder friendly and need to improve market analysts perception toward promoters .
thank you so much sir for your kind reply.i will definitely add some of it.
ReplyDeleteHello sir.......need your view regarding E-LAND APPAREL.
ReplyDeleteHi Pramod , looks very good candidate for turnaround but be sure you pay as low as possible .
DeleteFinally got hold of some shares of Technvision Ventures . Do update about your observations regarding the Company's results declared yesterday.
ReplyDeleteHi Sameer ,
DeleteTechnVision(Solix) is like concept stock . I am not going to sell single share even though next 2 years results are not good . This is precondition so it will not changed based on few more decent or bad result. It is tiny market cap company with good products (based on big data) , nobody knows when product will get traction in market . Secondally , It is always going to be takeover candidate so we can't apply tactics like sell now and by again . We will have to hold it long . My objective to to build wealth over next 5-6 years in this stock & not next month or year .
Thanks Sir for the reply.
ReplyDeleteSir Can u give me an overview for 2 companies
ReplyDelete1) Gujarat Ambuja Export
2) Kanoria Chemicals.
Heavily Invested in Both these Stocks.
Reagrds,
Vivek
Dear sir,
ReplyDeleteI have following queries regarding technvision
1)In spite of so many tie ups with biggies why no change in turn over is observed in latest qtr. result.
2)considering high percentage of promoter holding and their willingness to sell out company at right valuation,have you by any chance come to know about promoter integrity and their approach towards minority shareholder.This question comes to my mind as few years back i had invested in co. called riddhi siddhi gluco. in which promoter sold their profitable unit to MNC at 800-1000 cr. but minority share holder got nothing in comparison.
Thanks & awaiting for your reply.
Hi Hiamashu ,
DeleteI will give at least 2 years time to this stock , if performance improves then based on that I will reward it buy purchasing additional quantity else move on . It is not right to expect something big in few quarters . Yesterday , BAE system selected Mahindra as partner for howitzer assembly facility for http://www.livemint.com/Companies/zrZSV6RPQo9yCDP6kyYTEL/BAE-Systems-selects-Mahindra-for-ultra-lightweight-howitzer.html
BAE system is very big company , if Solix Big Data products taste good success then it will be very good reference customers . We are also not sure how profitable deal they have with this BAE system implementation . Revenue from this deal will come into picture of June quarter or best case in the current quarter . I do have a day job , if somebody go ahead and interview them then we can get some insight about their plan and business .
Promoter integrity very tough job to identify in small company . There will be very few small cap companies where market fully trust promoter . We have to trust promoters till they make first major mistake towards minority shareholder in small cap world. You can't identify what they will do in future by talking to them . You can just play guess game by clue thrown by them time to time .
Today's world we can't even trust our close relative(like uncle) in financial matters leave alone promoters .
Dear sir,
ReplyDeleteThanks for your reply.
Sir, Mid and small cap stocks have corrected substantially during last few months. Don't you see any stock to enter into at this juncture?
ReplyDeleteawaiting update from you eagerly
ReplyDeleteEicher Motors March 2016 CV Sales grow a robust 53% .
ReplyDeletefree intraday tips
Value Investors dilemma on eCommerce business like Amazon is very well explained in Giverny Capital Annual letters
ReplyDeletesource : http://www.givernycapital.com/en/doc/206/Giverny_Capital_-_Annual_Letter_2015_web_.pdf
The following is text from page 14 .
Bronze Medal: Amazon
I have been an avid fan of Amazon since the launch of its retail website. However, it was very difficult
to see when the company would become profitable when it went public in 1997. Sales increased rapidly
but losses followed suit. Slowly, the company has become slightly profitable. The company has a policy
of investing heavily in its future and is always willing to sacrifice short-term profits. Amazon spends
billions of dollars on a very important activity and a potential source of wealth: to dig a huge economic
moat around its business to keep far away competitors. This is the best way that a CEO can spend money
(when the moat is real and not imaginary as is so often the case). In our opinion, Jeff Bezos is one of
the greatest businessmen in history and we would have liked to become partners with him for many
years now.
Historically, Amazon has benefited from Wall Street’s support of its bold strategy focused on the long
term. In 2014, the stock had corrected from $400 to under $300. With EPS of little over $1, the stock
seemed very far from a bargain. I nonetheless took the time to look more closely into their business
model and tried to assess the earning power going forward to 2020. My estimates seemed plausible: I
arrived at an EPS potential of $28 in 2020. Using a P/E ratio of 25 times, this would justify a stock price
of $700 six years later (a potential annualized return of 15%). But hoping for a greater margin of safety,
I preferred to wait for a lower price. Today, a little over a year after my analysis, the stock is at $575,
or 92% more than the price at which I considered buying shares.
I realize fully that the company is difficult to value with its current level of profitability. The “value
investor” in me makes me reluctant to bet too much on the future. But I have often said that “being
disciplined is to follow your rules; but being wise is knowing when to break them.” Buying shares of
Amazon requires an act of faith in Jeff Bezos. With a good enough margin of safety, it might be wise
to invest with him.
And we missed that opportunity in 2014.
Hello sir...how are you sir??? we need your valuable comment on "VIVID GLOBAL" as its story looking interesting and "MIC ELECTRONICS" as one can see their order book and liaison with indian railways.
ReplyDeleteOur tiny company TechNVision (Solix) has now joined hand with big giant Dell . Dell will resell the Solix Big Data Suite on a pre-installed Dell hardware appliance and provide application management services to simplify the deployment of enterprise archiving, application retirement and analytics applications based on Apache Hadoop.
ReplyDeletehttp://corporates.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/AttachLive/981D6C59_68F6_46B5_9C65_579160D18969_165002.pdf
More details of Dell deal .
ReplyDeletehttp://www.crn.com/news/data-center/300080281/partners-dell-solix-move-in-big-data-is-good-setup-for-future-growth.htm
Hi, a quick question on Olympia industries. Post the warrant news, the stock has been falling every day. How do you see this development?
ReplyDeletekindly reply, your inputs are important.
DeleteI can say that Olympia Industries Ltd stock pick is laggard . But my first assumption was that It will start performing once market lot change from 100 to 1 . It will happen only if more than 50% public shareholding in demat format . If warrents get converted then it will be shy away with around 1 lakh public share . This is regarding price movement and liquidity .
DeleteBut business performance is also not improved as expected . I am not concern right now about bottom-line but just topline . Management has adapted cockroach like approach where they do want to first survive . If I want to give constructive feedback to them then I will say they are not showing hunger for growth even though they are part of growing industry . They can easily partners with other ecommerce market place apart from Amazon India but they haven’t .
I can understand they can’t compete with Clodtail on discount front because Clodtail has financial mussel of Amazon and Naryan Murty . But good news is that Clodtail can’t sell more than 25% on Amazon India’s total sale(GMV) . This will give Olympia Industries opportunity to increase market share on Amazon India . Current price correction will put them on toe since they are holding around 75% in company . They will be get more impacted than us . Top of that promoters had pledged shares to convert preferential warrant into equity shares (May be not prefer or ideal way ) . This is lack season for them but their listing are now days again started to increases . This stock right now also impacted due to lack of positive triggers even though recent FDI rule in ecommerce are very much positive for the company . I am still holding and I will hold at least few more year unless fundamental changes or I get much more attractive stock pick .
You are still holding it, therefore that is the reason for not coming up with new ideas?
DeletePlease tell. From long not read your post. I remember you due to intrasoft.
Thanks.
Hi Satya ,
DeleteI think , I lack skill to come up with stock ideas now and then . :)
I am not compulsion stock buyer , I can wait . As per me , this is not the time to show greed, instead we should show some fear . Just look what type of stocks are flying for last few days . It indicate bull market in full swing . Some can utilized it and some like me will be fearful . If one has seen couple of business cycles then one might be fearful at this stage .
Why no trading in olympia?
ReplyDeleteBecause very few people public hold this share in demat format and current market lot is 100 . Another reason , It is in P group and only few (3-4) brokerage houses permit trading in P group . It will be out of P grouo once more than 50% public shareholding in demat format. I hope you got answer . Please don’t invest in it if you don’t have long time horizon .
Deletethank you, sir, for your clear reply
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteSir
DeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteHello sir.....well no updates since long time??? Well olympia result out..now i think result is good!! whats ur view for the result??
ReplyDeleteHi Pramod , first of all thanks for regularly visiting my blog even I was not able visit my blog from last few weeks due to other priorities.
ReplyDeleteNo doubt result was above expectation . However , I believe next quarter is most important one , and it will decide if it can go to next level or not .
It is showing consistency from last 3 quarters, EPS (non diluted) are 5.21 , 5.47 and 5.87 = 16.55 . If next quarter even if gives EPS of 3.5 to 5.5 we will have TTM EPS of around 20 to 22 . Current price is very attractive if this scenario turned out even at dilute level . Even though it is in P group Market will rerate this stock if it continue to showing consistency in next quarter . If market gives reasonable PE of 15-20 then also we will see good price . I don’t see PE of 15-20 is impossible given it is market leader in online seller segment in listed space ( I am talking about just sellers like Clodtail , WS retail etc and not marketplace itself ) . It is also FNFG and consumption play apart from ecommerce . Even though, it has inventory based model but maintains working capital nicely and even enjoy some float by high trade payable . High promoter shareholding . Navin Pansari has contributed lot in success of Rashi Peripherals Pvt. Ltd .
Of course , I will again stress that we will see rerating only if it also shows consistency in next quarter similar to last 3 quarters.
This is short term trigger but I believe if you can commit your capital long term then the following triggers will also help to make some money in it if management does even decent job .
1) Out of P group , it may take 1 year or 3 years or even more . Need to have patience . Whenever ,Next round of fund raising from non-promoter will happen ,it will cross 50% public demat shareholding which put it out of “P” group. Market lot will change from 100 to 1 , all the brokers platform will allow trading in it .
2) Olympia is not ecommerce market place but seller on market place like Amazon . If it concentrate on profit (botomline) instead of GMV then it will grow at moderate pace instead of fast pace. If some big name get attracted then it will see rerating since it has all the ingredients to be get attracted . Rakesh Jhunjhunwala says “If a girl is beautiful a suitor will come. If a stock is beautiful, a suitor will come”
3) If they join additional marketplaces apart from existing Amazon .
4) Recent FDI in ecommerce rule strictly followed by Amazon . They will have to restrict Cloudtail to 25% which will of course help second biggest seller Olympia . If you visit today’s deal section on Amazon the it get dominated by Clodtail around 60-70% .
Thank you so much sir and also need your valuable comment on "Technvision" result. or any other stock u have then please discuss with us. Whats your view on "Jyoti resin"??
DeleteHi Satya ,
ReplyDeleteI think , I lack skill to come up with stock ideas now and then . :)
I am not compulsion stock buyer , I can wait . As per me , this is not the time to show greed, instead we should show some fear . Just look what type of stocks are flying for last few days . It indicate bull market in full swing . Some can utilized it and some like me will be fearful . If one has seen couple of business cycles then one might be fearful at this stage .
Hi Admin,
ReplyDeleteI got many points from your reply. Most important is - you lack skill .... ;)
I understood that you are not out and you will update it when required and you have something to share. I wanted to know this.
Thanks,
Satya