I have started #Poll2Learn series where we will learn together by poll and explaining my point of view . You are welcome to correct me or provide your input .
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#Poll2Learn : 6
Some of you might surprise to know that if we exclude dividend then high or low valuation doesn't matter if entry and exit valuation is the same. In other words, if we don't include dividend then starting (even exiting ) P/B is either 1 or 100 or 1000. Your return will be the same. But , if you include dividend then high P/B valuation stocks will give low returns.
In our case, A has P/B of 40 then starting price will be 4000 and it will give a dividend of 72 ( Dividend yield around 1.8) in the first year .
If the cost of equity capital( or expected return) is 15 then A has to give around 13.2 CAGR to meet cost or expectation of investor. A which has high ROE and the extremely good quality company, As per my calculation will give less than 10 CAGR. This time high valuation came in the picture and play its role. A has qualities almost similar to Hindustan Unilever Ltd(HUL). Maybe, you can understand why not everyone buys HUL when everyone knows it will remain quality after 10 years and will produce high ROE.
Check CAGR of A,B,C and D including dividend. I would like to warn these are just for illustration, no one can predict 10 years ROE. But, even if can predict in some range then half of your work is done.
One can make good money where the scope of reinvestment with high ROE is present even though entry valuation is high and going to remain the same till exit. If entry valuation is high and it doesn't remain high then CAGR will go for a toss. No one can predict exit valuation after 10 years.
One can identify reinvestment or size of the opportunity in many ways, one of them is Bharat shah's size of opportunity framework to identify suitable companies.
Follow me on twitter to participate in poll.
Follow Me
or https://twitter.com/Value2WealthIND
#Poll2Learn : 6
Some of you might surprise to know that if we exclude dividend then high or low valuation doesn't matter if entry and exit valuation is the same. In other words, if we don't include dividend then starting (even exiting ) P/B is either 1 or 100 or 1000. Your return will be the same. But , if you include dividend then high P/B valuation stocks will give low returns.
In our case, A has P/B of 40 then starting price will be 4000 and it will give a dividend of 72 ( Dividend yield around 1.8) in the first year .
If the cost of equity capital( or expected return) is 15 then A has to give around 13.2 CAGR to meet cost or expectation of investor. A which has high ROE and the extremely good quality company, As per my calculation will give less than 10 CAGR. This time high valuation came in the picture and play its role. A has qualities almost similar to Hindustan Unilever Ltd(HUL). Maybe, you can understand why not everyone buys HUL when everyone knows it will remain quality after 10 years and will produce high ROE.
Check CAGR of A,B,C and D including dividend. I would like to warn these are just for illustration, no one can predict 10 years ROE. But, even if can predict in some range then half of your work is done.
One can make good money where the scope of reinvestment with high ROE is present even though entry valuation is high and going to remain the same till exit. If entry valuation is high and it doesn't remain high then CAGR will go for a toss. No one can predict exit valuation after 10 years.
One can identify reinvestment or size of the opportunity in many ways, one of them is Bharat shah's size of opportunity framework to identify suitable companies.
SIr,
ReplyDeleteWHATS YOUR VIEW ON DELISTING OF fOMENTO RESORTS.What do u think at what price this will be deslisted