We will start with position of Emagia’s O2C SaaS
products in worldwide market.
Emagia positioned as a leader in IDC
MarketScape: Worldwide SaaS and Cloud-Enabled Accounts Receivable Automation
Applications for Enterprise from last two years.
The following screenshot from 1 year old
article of Robert Solomon. He has nicely explained all players of worldwide
SaaS players in Account Receivable automation. Bob Solomon is founder,
President, and Chief Bottle Washer of Software Platform Consulting, Inc
Our task to estimates the valuation of
Emagia a SaaS player. In Agile framework, if can't estimate task then we can use
relative estimation. It means if that task was that much complex and taken this
much time then compare our task with the already estimated task. We can use the
same for estimation of intrinsic value or market value of Emagia. We are right
now interested in the whole company valuation instead of around 67% stake of
TechnVision. We can adjust that during the intrinsic valuation of TechNVision.
We will
find out competitors and their current valuation. We know the current revenue
of Emagia is just few millions.
We are having the following
clues.
HighRadius : I don't know
the exact revenue of HighRadius(promoted by NRI Sashi Narahari) but as per my
understanding it is around $230 to $250 million. It is valued at $3.1 billion
in latest funding which is 12.4 to 13.5 times revenue. We can give that
multiple but HighRadius is 25 times more than Emagia . We need to check few
more companies.
Versapay : Great Hill paid C$126
million for VersaPay in an all-cash deal when Expected 2019 Revenue: C$9
million and EBITDA loss for 2019 will be about -C$8 million. Great Hill paid 14
times to revenue. Link :
https://platformsoftware.net/2019/12/16/great-hill-to-acquire-versapay/
Rimilia : It has £6.18 million ( $8.55 millions) revenue in 2019 . Loss-making (EBIT 5.7 milions). BlackLine acquired Rimilia in Oct. 2020 at $150 million. It paid around 17.5 times. https://www.accountingtoday.com/news/blackline-acquires-european-ar-software-provider-rimilia
As per IDC MarketScape HighRadius is the
leader. However, Emagia is ahead of Versapay and Rimilia.
Before coming to valuation, we should know Emagia's revenue. So , Emagia had revenue around 16 crores in 2019. It is growing very fast .It has revenue of just 2 crores in 2018 , then 6.7 in 2019 then around 16 crores in 2020.It may come around 20-30 crores in 2020. We are waiting financials of the company for 2020 ( USA Financial Year) .So , valuation is also tentative till get confirm figures but I am assuming 25 crores.
Versapay was acquired at 14 times revenue
while Rimilia was acquired at 17.5 times revenue valuation recently and both
are the same size as Emagia.
Now, you can apply revenue multiples of your
understanding to revenue of 20-30 crores for the current valuation for VCs and
another fund. Mind you this is not valuation I or you are going to pay this is
valuations that other companies or VCs and other funds can pay or strategic fit
for a bigger company. Majesco shareholders made money because they know how
much VCs or Fund houses can pay or market value.
Will you be able to find the market value of
complete Emagia with these hints? 15 to
20 times will be the answer based on peer evaluations. However, Emagia has a
better product and there is the rush for digital transformations. If we assume
18 times valuation and 25 cr revenue then valuation will come to around 450 crores INR . You are not paying this but this is the market valuation of Emagia
today which can grow more in the next 4-5 years. Please also not Emagia can strategery fit for many companies . If BlackLine can pay
However, this is not a TechNVision valuation
in Emagia. One will have to calculate as per 66.24% holding (around 298 crores)
and give some discount for tax/holding/doubts and add a premium for growth of
tech business. Discount and premium needs to be given by shareholders of TechNVision.
This will be the TechNVision valuation for
Emagia Stake. But to complete the valuation of TechNVision, we need to add
Solix's valuation which has 80 crores revenue last year and around 100 crores
this year. Can anyone calculate that?
Next article, I will explain why the
valuation of 10-20 times the revenue for SaaS companies with ARR is not
expensive. In fact, I will be buyers for 10-15 times in companies like
Highradius which is planning an IPO next year in the USA, or even Emagia for
direct investment.
Note : Bad news on TechNVision. It is put on
GSM : Stage 3 from earlier 2. This is a problem with illiquid stocks.SEBI &
Indian exchange don't understand the intrinsic value of new generation tech biz
which shows losses. Most of the Indian unicorns are making losses if listed
then will be on GSM. I will request retail investors should stay away from TechNVision unless they can afford this type of illiquidity risk.
Disclaimer :
Please treat this post as starting point of your research and not
conclusion to invest in any discussed stock. As always , please take the advice
of a SEBI qualified financial adviser which I am not .
Thx sir for the detailed post, lets see who all will join the discussion or who will copy paste this on twitter as their research :)
ReplyDelete