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August 25, 2017

My first 150 times bagger in 50 months : Power of Sequential Multibaggers



First of all Shubh Ganesh Chaturthi to you.
Generally, luck doesn’t fever me.But, during this period of around 50 months (to be precise 53 months), luck did favor because of god’s grace. I made around 150 times return during this period that too only stocks discussed on the blog. You will argue that yes we have seen you track record page of discussed stocks and you might made max around 10 times, So, Mr Feku please stop here. But, I will carry on.
                My 150 times return is hidden the stocks listed on that page itself. It was hidden like CORE muscles (six packs abs) hide behind fat, if one does CORE exercise which makes them strongest, it will not be visible unless one reduces fat around that area. Similarly, I will try to show my 150 times baggers from the following list.
From Track Record Page                              


Gain due to over 70% luck and less than 30% skill


Discussed DateSold DateDiscussed priceSold PriceLowHighCAGRGainLTP
25-Jan-2017
Comments
Nucleus Software Exports Ltd.13-Mar-11Dec-14782105735341.78%2.7x276My avg was 68 but return calculated on 78
Kaveri Seed Company LtdAug-12Dec-14160 (800)8701501075118.48%5.8x490
Umang Dairies LtdAug-12Jul-1540652510117.57%1.6x76My avg 28 but return calculated on 40
Sah Petroleums Ltd(GP Petroleums Ltd)Oct-12Dec-1412.21 (Bonus Adjusted)806.0598.3594.15%6.55x90
Intrasoft technologiesDec-14Oct-15 (partial)45 and 5256041600181.95%8.66x390CAGR and Gain on LTP
Olympia Industries LtdJul-15NA165 to 90NA9034963.51%2.1x345CAGR and Gain on price of 165
TechNVision Ventures Ltd(Solix technologies)Oct-15NA46NA46221237.28%4.13x190
ADI Finechem LimitedNov-15NA225NA170560118.49%2.37x535


Now , I will show journey started with Rs 1 in Aug 2012 , how it become Rs 150 + .





Luckily , Rs one converted in Rs 161 at whopping 216% CAGR .


All the stocks were discussed in public domain . Non of these universally accepted quality stock . It doesn't mean that I don't hold quality stocks . More than 90% multi-baggers are not universally accepted quality stock during initial periods . Based on their solid performance those become quality stocks.

You can see that journey started with Rs 1 in Aug 2012 became Rs 161 by Jan 2017. It is journey of 1640 days (around 4 years 5 months). I always maintained that my blog post of discussed stocks should be treated as starting point of your analysis not the conclusion. I divided money in 3 stocks in 2014 but someone smarter could have put all this money in TechnVision at that time. So, one might have got return of 56*5 = 280 baggers. Doesn’t it look like fantasy? In fact, yes. The reality is that almost all of my discussed stocks used to trade below my discussion price after putting on the blog after few days or few months. So, one can make entry in it below the blog discussed price. But, this never happened with TechnVision. So , no one who came to know about this stock through my blog could have got it at Rs 45 or less .
Another point , what if I kept my money in the long term in one stock , Kaveri and not switched money . Jan 2017 I could ended up with just Rs 2.5 because it was trading half of my sold price .
                I know, TechnVision and Olympia are trading below Jan 2017 price and those may trade below or higher in future. That’s why this idiot smartly chosen historical time period. So, no-one can compare with current price and take away my pleasure. Sometimes, even idiots can also apply smart trick to show that they can also act smartly. 
                To get 100 baggers either your stock pick should get first 10 beggar then again 10 baggers or you should have two different 10 baggers in sequence .Money wise, getting 100 bagger in one stock or combination of stock by sequential multibaggers is same. But, to be honest getting 100 bagger in one stock is more pleasant. Both methods have their own challenges, but sequential multibaggers is more risky and chance of error is high. Recently, Auyush Mittal has completed 100 baggers in Avanti Feeds Link . This is skill, on other hand mine is more luck than skill. On other hand Ramdeo Agrwal also has 100 baggers to his credit because of his knowledge. If we study VP sir (http://value-picks.blogspot.in/) by sequential multibagger then we may see multiple 100 baggers in some period. I beg, borrow or steal insight from anywhere I can get it. I do have some mutibaggers borrowed from Ayush ,VP sir and some others . Earlier (2011), Ayush had discussed Avanti Feeds and for tracking I had invested Rs 4400 and not sure why I forgot it. I rarely see that account because I had created some other account due to lower brokerage. Guess what that Rs 4400 become Rs 1,20,000 , growth of two zeroes . It was very pleasant surprise same time it proves how idiot I am. Invested only Rs 4400 .
                I have mathematically somehow proven I do have 100 baggers, but knowledge wise I don’t even have 1% knowledge compare to them . I have lot of scope to improve on my knowledge. But there are challenges lies ahead.
What is next? : To be frank, chances of disaster are very high in my next stock pick after getting this more than expected success. So , it is very important for you to cross check and do more due diligence analysis than earlier . Currently, Market is expensive and only people with great skill can get bargain picks. I am not compulsive buyer. So, I may discussed next stock pick tomorrow or not even in next two years. If some lucrative idea comes then definitely I will share.  Till then, you may forgive this boring guy who can’t give picks on regular intervals.

May Lord Ganesha Remove The Obstacles
Of Your Life, Provide You With Auspicious
Beginnings, Inspire You With Creativity,
And Bless You With Intellect, Good Health, Wisdom And some mutlitibaggers.
Ganpati Bappa Morya, Happy Ganesh Chaturthi! 

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11 comments:

  1. sir, what is your view on LEEL ELECTRIC?

    ReplyDelete
  2. Dear V2W
    I know you possess extra ordinary ability in stock analysis and you have been so humble to present your stature to all.
    You are a rare breed in this field who use to blow their own trumpets in deservingly.
    I value your judgement and stock picks
    Greatly. I came in to contact with your blog only about a year back but benefitted immensely.
    Thank you for your selfless service to small investors
    A.Rajendiran

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thanks Rajendiran , readers like you keep me motivated .

      Delete
  3. Sir, your latest view on Technvision results

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi Mahindra,
      I am still holding in fact bought fresh small quantity in the range of 130-140. I am sure about great future of Solix .Only concern is TechnVision doesn't have full 100% holding in Solix .
      Solix is concept stocks . Concept stocks generally has 3 phases , first great stories , second topline growth and third is bottomline growth . Now , It started top-line growth .
      This is very good candidate for acquisition . Lot of bigger players eyes this type of companies due to strategic fit . When they buy they don't consider how much market is valuing this company but they how strategic fit in their offering and how much value they can extract from it in the future .

      Delete
  4. How you see Olympia Ind. for long term as we can see rating on amazon decreasing day by day for olympia.
    Sir happy to see you please sir i request you to please keep in touch with us any how. you motivated us and your comments, your views are very help full for us.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Agree , even I am also concerned about total number of feedback count.
      GST has even impacted cloudtail . They were earlier having two entities Cloudtail and Cloudtail India . One of this (Cloudtail) has stopped business . So if you combine sales of both then they are also seeing decline .
      Before GST implementation(till June) Olympia has reached to 10000 listing from normal 6500. But now it came back to below 5000.So definitely a concern.It is not working as I expected .This is may be due to GST .We may see impact of it for next 1-2 quarters . If you wish then book profit and move to another counter and come back once see some visible indicators.

      Delete
  5. Thank you for reply sir i was about to book profit but stack increased by SAFIR ANAND make me curious so i didn't book profit lets see. I will wait for next 2-3 quarters.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I am not aware of SAFIR ANAND increasing stake in Olympia ? Could you please share link / source ?

      Delete
    2. Its in AR-2017 only....shareholding pattern of top ten shareholders on AR-2017 page no. 27 (pdf page no.)his name mentioned on 12th no. Plzzz provide your vie after this :)

      Delete

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